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Awad, A and Fayek, A R (2013) Adaptive Learning of Contractor Default Prediction Model for Surety Bonding. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(06), 694–704.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Construction management; Adaptive systems; Fuzzy sets; Neural networks; Predictions; Contractors; Construction; Adaptive systems; Fuzzy sets; Bonding; Neural networks;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000639
  • Abstract:
    The performance of a fuzzy expert system (FES) is significantly affected by the accuracy of its knowledge base parameters (membership functions and rule bases). The main contribution of this paper is in presenting a methodology to integrate an FES with adaptation/optimization techniques and applying the data-based adaptive learning concept to increase the accuracy of an FES developed for contractor default prediction for surety bonding. In addition, this paper investigates two optimization approaches (genetic algorithms and neural network back-propagation) for adaptation of fuzzy membership function (MBF) and rules’ degree of support (DoS) to determine the most suitable technique to adapt the FES. The optimized FES, called SuretyQualification, was validated using 30 hypothetical contractor default prediction cases, and the highest accuracy of the system (adapted using neural networks) was found to be 91.83%. Another contribution of this paper is the development of a software tool called SuretyQualification that provides a comprehensive and systematic evaluation process to evaluate a contractor and their risk of default on a project. The presented optimization approaches address FES context adaptation using any changing information conveyed by the input-output data and provide a methodology for continuous adaptation of the FES parameters, using practical cases to adjust the FES according to any contexts changes.

Badu, E, Owusu-Manu, D, Edwards, D J and Holt, G D (2013) Analysis of Strategic Issues Underpinning the Innovative Financing of Infrastructure within Developing Countries. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(06), 726–37.

Brodetskaia, I, Sacks, R and Shapira, A (2013) Stabilizing Production Flow of Interior and Finishing Works with Reentrant Flow in Building Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(06), 665–74.

Cariaga, I and El-Diraby, T E (2013) Assessing the market potential for housing construction products in Mexico. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(06), 717–25.

Chen, Q, Jin, R and Soboyejo, A (2013) Understanding a Contractor’s Regional Variations in Safety Performance. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(06), 641–53.

Cho, Y, Wang, C and Zhuang, Z (2013) Framework for Empirical Process to Improve Nonnuclear Gauge Performance in Hot-Mix Asphalt Pavement Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(06), 601–10.

Chong, H Y, Zin, R M and Chong, S C (2013) Employing Data Warehousing for Contract Administration: e-Dispute Resolution Prototype. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(06), 611–9.

Kim, Y A, Ryoo, B Y, Kim, Y and Huh, W C (2013) Major Accident Factors for Effective Safety Management of Highway Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(06), 628–40.

Le, Y, Wang, Y, Luo, C and Peng, Y (2013) Integration of Financial and Contract Management on the Shanghai Expo Construction Program. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(06), 738–48.

Park, T, Kim, B and Kim, H (2013) Real Option Approach to Sharing Privatization Risk in Underground Infrastructures. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(06), 685–93.

Russell, J S (2013) Shaping the Future of the Civil Engineering Profession. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(06), 654–64.

Solla, M, González-Jorge, H, Varela, M and Lorenzo, H (2013) Ground-Penetrating Radar for Inspection of In-Road Structures and Data Interpretation by Numerical Modeling. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(06), 749–53.

Xia, B, Molenaar, K, Chan, A, Skitmore, M and Zuo, J (2013) Determining Optimal Proportion of Design in Design-Build Request for Proposals. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(06), 620–7.

Yeung, J F Y, Chan, A P C, Chan, D W M, Chiang, Y H and Yang, H (2013) Developing a Benchmarking Model for Construction Projects in Hong Kong. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(06), 705–16.

Yu, W, Wang, K and Wang, M (2013) Pricing Strategy for Best Value Tender. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(06), 675–84.